The Open Mats PAC 12 Preview
TOM’s 2011-12 PAC 12 Conference Preview
Published on October 7, 2011 by viratas · No Comments
Well the season is just around the corner and we have already posted our preseason rankings. We now start our conference by conference preview. We are hoping to get them all out prior to the dual season starting. This is part of our expanded coverage we are hoping to offer all of you this year. Also, look for more live blogs from TOM from some of the best duals this year. As the season looms closer check out the calendar on TOM s news page for a complete schedule of the live blogs that will be offered.
Now we move on to the PAC 12. The PAC 12 seems to be in rebuilding mode as a whole. There are some top flight guys in the conference, but overall the conference lacks the depth it has had in previous years.
Lets get started; first we will look at the numbers, then the individuals and wrap it up with the team overviews.
The Numbers
Returning National Champs: 0
Returning All-Americans: 3
Numbers of weights with zero returning (2011) All-Americans: 7
Returning PAC 12 Champions (2011) *weight listed is the one the won it at
• 141 – Boris Novachkov – Cal Poly
• 184 – Jake Meredith – Arizona State
• Hwt – Clayton Jack – Oregon State
125
1 – Jason Lara – Oregon State
2 – Tyler Iwamura – Bakersfield
3 – Matt Sencenbaugh – Stanford
4 – Britain Longmire – Cal Poly
5 – Isaac Romero – Boise State
6 – Dalton Miller – Arizona State
Lara is the favorite here but maybe not by as much as people would think. Lara is coming off a solid season that saw him butting heads with some of the best in the country and we expect him to show improvement and be an All-American threat. Iwamura is the next highest place winner from last year. He had some nice wins including a Major decision over Lara and a win over Sprenkle of North Dakota State. With that said if he improves he may threaten Lara for the title. Sencenbaugh moves down to 125 after spending most of last season at 133. The new weight should serve him better. Longmire is solid but does have losses to the individuals listed above. Romero takes over in Boise and he went 3-3 last season. We do not know enough about him to consider him a threat just yet. Miller has big shoes to fill at ASU and wrestled a light schedule last year.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Jason Lara – Oregon State
2. Tyler Iwamura – Bakersfield
3. Matt Sencenbaugh – Stanford
4. Britain Longmire – Cal Poly
133
1 – Ryan Mango – Stanford
2 – Garrett Drucker – Oregon State
3 – Jose Mendoza – Bakersfield
4 – Brandan Rocha -Cal Poly
5 – Shane McGough – Arizona State
6 – Shawn Jones – Boise State
The big news here is Mango at 133. He becomes the favorite despite coming up a weight. There is a small chance he may redshirt and or end up at 125 later in the year. But for now we have been told he is training, planning on wrestling at 133 to start the year. Drucker was the runner-up at this weight last season and went 0-2 at nationals. He beat some pretty solid guys last season and should be better this season. Mendoza did lose to Drucker but has some solid wins over Stanzione, Reiter and Stevens. It will be interesting to see if he can improve upon last season. If he does he could find himself in the finals. Rocha was fourth last season and did not have a significant win. McGough comes of redshirt for the Sun Devils. He had a very good high school career and we will have to wait and see how that parlays into his college career. Jones did not have an impressive year last year so we are not sure if he will be a threat at this weight or not.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Ryan Mango – Stanford
2. Garrett Drucker – Oregon State
3. Jose Mendoza – Bakersfield
4. Brandan Rocha -Cal Poly
141
1 – Boris Novachkov – Cal Poly
2 – Mike Mangrum – Oregon State
3 – Josh Strait – Boise State
4 – Dalton Kelly – Bakersfield
5 – Donovan Halpin – Stanford
6 – Nathan Hoffer – Arizona State
Novachkov is the clear favorite as he is also looking at capturing a national title as well. He is solid and should be able to take the top spot here. He will be challenged by Mangrum who is solid in his own right. He has been round of 12 two years in a row and was third here last season. Some people seem to be very high on Strait; we are taking a wait and see approach. We are guessing the optimism is based on a win over Von Ohlen last November. We are not sure that win trumps some of the bad losses he took. But who knows, he may just prove us wrong. After that the weight is rather wide open all three of the remaining guys had similar seasons last year. We say Pick’em for 4-6.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Boris Novachkov – Cal Poly
2. Mike Mangrum – Oregon State
3. Josh Strait – Boise State
4. Dalton Kelly – Bakersfield
149
1 – Scott Sakaguchi – Oregon State
2 – Joel Smith – Arizona State
3 – Timmy Boone – Stanford
4 – Steven Hernandez – Boise State
5 – Damien Arredondo – Cal Poly
6 – Calvin Miller – Bakersfield
Sakaguchi is the favorite here, unless something odd happens he is in control of the weight class. He was the runner-up last year to Chamberlain who is not competing this year. A guy we think could surprise some people is Smith from Arizona State. He had an ok year last year, but was a highly sought after recruit coming out of high school. Boone won more then he lost last season and with some improvement could find himself fighting for a spot in the finals. After that, things are wide open much like the last weight. There is little info on Hernandez who is listed as being 1-0 last year. Arrendondo is a freshman so we are not sure where he will fit in. Miller had unimpressive season last year.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Scott Sakaguchi – Oregon State
2. Joel Smith – Arizona State
3. Timmy Boone – Stanford
4. Steven Hernandez – Boise State
157
1 – RJ Pena – Oregon State
2 – Kyle Meyer – Stanford
3 – Georgi Ivanov – Boise State
4 – Travis Rasmussen – Cal Poly
5 – Anthony Box – Bakersfield
6 – Derek Felton – Arizona State
In a weight class we consider up for grabs, we see Pena as the early leader. He redshirted last year and compiled a 24-4 record in open tournaments. The year before he also saw some success and should only be better this year. Meyer had a decent season last year most notably beating Iowa’s Derek St. John. Look for him to be in the conversation at the end of the year. Ivanov was 3rd last year at the NCAA DII Championships and transfers in from the now eliminated Omaha program. With this weight being so wide open he has to be considered a contender in our opinion. Rasmussen should be solid for Cal Poly and Box should improve on last year. The unknown is Felton who comes off of redshirt and was a high school stand out going 191-6.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. RJ Pena – Oregon State
2. Georgi Ivanov – Boise State
3. Kyle Meyer – Stanford
4. Travis Rasmussen – Cal Poly
165
1 – Micheal Cuthbertson – Boise State
2 – Kyle DeBerry – Arizona State
3 – Steven Vasquez – Cal Poly
4 – Adam Fierro – Bakersfield
5 – Cody Weisoff – Oregon State
6 – Bret Baumbach – Stanford
When you talk about wide open, this weight should be the perfect example. There are no standouts here at least based on past results. This one will be the hardest to handicap. Cuthbertson is solid but not lights out, and could be considered a very slight favorite. Deberry placed last year but was actually just 1-3 at the conference tournament. Vasquez comes down a weight this year after placing 6th at 174 last season. The change in weight may help him here. Fierro is a true freshman that could end up winning it. He had a very good High School career and could surprise some people. Weisoff was ok last season and can not be counted out either. Baumbach also was ok. To be honest any one of these guys could win this weight.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Steven Vasquez – Cal Poly
2. Adam Fierro – Bakersfield
3. Cody Weisoff – Oregon State
4. Bret Baumbach – Stanford
174
1 – Nick Amuchastegui – Stanford
2 – Ryan DesRoches – Cal Poly
3 – Eric Starks – Arizona State
4 – Scotty Bacon – Boise State
5 – Ty Vinson – Oregon State
6 – Brady Garner – Bakersfield
Amuchastegui is the clear favorite here. If he improves off of last season he has a shot at being the best in the land. DesRoaches has always been a guy that can give people matches and changes weights this year moving from 165 to 174 for this season. He was 3rd at 165 and did qualify for the NCAA tournament. Starks was 3rd at this weight a year ago and could challenge here. Bacon is an interesting freshman that could open a few eyes, we do not think he will knock off Amuchastegui, but he could knock some of the others off. Vinson is solid but has not had the big wins yet. Garner will have to show some improvement to make a dent in this weight.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Nick Amuchastegui – Stanford
2. Ryan DesRoches – Cal Poly
3. Eric Starks – Arizona State
4. Scotty Bacon – Boise State
184
1 – Jake Meredith – Arizona State
2 – Jake Swartz – Boise State
3 – Spence Patrick – Stanford
4 – Taylor Meeks – Oregon State
5 – Ian Daube – Cal Poly
6 – Oren Dramen – Bakersfield
This one should be a battle between Swartz and Meredith. Meredith won the tournament last year and Swartz had a bad ending and was down a weight last year. With that said Swartz is pretty solid. Look for these guys to battle it out for that top spot. Patrick did beat Meredith last season and with some improvement could be in the conversation for sure. Meeks had a great year last year going 22-9 in his redshirt year. OSU fans have high expectations for him. Time will tell if he will contend or not. Daube and Dramen will be first year starters for their teams.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Jake Meredith – Arizona State
2. Jake Swartz – Boise State
3. Taylor Meeks – Oregon State
4. Spence Patrick – Stanford
197
1 – Luke Macchiaroli – Arizona State
2 – Ryan Smith – Cal Poly
3 – Alan Yen – Stanford
4 – AC Brown – Bakersfield
5 – Tyler Sherman – Oregon State
6 – Derek Toney – Boise State
Macchiraroli was last year’s runner-up and is considered the pre-season favorite. He was able to put things together last year at the conference tournament making a run to finals. He split with Smith last season, winning the last meeting. Smith had a very good season going 22-11 last year. Unlike Macchiraroli he seemed to falter at the end of the year. If he wrestles like he can, he should be right there at the end.
As seems to be the trend in this preview, the rest of the weight is wide open. All four of the remaining guys will be first year starters. Yen has the most success thus far out of this group. He went 11-16 last year. Brown is a true freshman for Bakersfield. Sherman and Toney had limited success last year in limited competition.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Luke Macchiaroli – Arizona State
2. Ryan Smith – Cal Poly
3. Alan Yen – Stanford
4. AC Brown – Bakersfield
285
1 – Levi Cooper – Arizona State
2 – Clayton Jack – Oregon State
3 – J.T Felix – Boise State
4 – Atticus Disney – Cal Poly
5 – Steven Wood – Bakersfield
6 – Dahlton Brown – Stanford
This weight has some depth. Cooper was a surprise All-American last year after finishing third in the conference tournament behind both Jack and Felix. Cooper should be improved from last year and should be wrestling with more confidence. Jack had a good year and will be looking to turn the corner this season and should be considered a threat. Felix also had a solid season and will be looking to anchor the Boise line-up. Disney did not have the year many expected. He has to put last season behind him. If he can and if he shows improvement, he may find himself in contention here. We round the weight out with two true freshman in Wood and Brown. We will have to wait and see where they fit until the season gets underway.
TOM’s conference tournament predictions
1. Clayton Jack – Oregon State
2. Levi Cooper – Arizona State
3. J.T Felix – Boise State
4. Atticus Disney – Cal Poly
Teams
1. Oregon State
2. Arizona State
3. Cal Poly
4. Stanford
5. Boise State
6. Cal Bakersfield
Team Overviews
Oregon State
11-5-2 (Overall) and 4-3-1 (PAC 12)
Projected Line-up (Please note that Oregon State did not provide us with a projected line-up. This is our educated guess as to their line-up)
125 – Jason Lara
133 – Garrett Drucker
141 – Mike Mangrum
149 – Scott Sakaguchi
157 – RJ Pena
165 – Cody Weisoff
174 – Ty Vinson
184 – Brian Engdahl
197 – Taylor Meeks
285 – Clayton Jack
On paper, even without their line-up, the Beavers have the most depth currently in the conference. They will be led by Lara, Drucker, Mangrum, Sakaguchi, and Jack. All of these guys are legit All-American threats. If these guys all perform to the level they can, OSU should be able to capture the conference title this year. Pena has been impressive in non-starter action and there are high hopes for him this season. Beaver fans also have high hopes for Meeks coming off a solid year where he went 22-9 as a redshirt.
In our opinion the beavers have some unknowns at 165, 174 and 184. In most cases we would say that this could be what decides their chances at winning the conference. But, we think that with their five leaders and the two young guys they should be just fine.
TOM’s Outlook: We are predicting that Beavers will get five finalists and three champions. They could get more for sure, but we do expect others in the conference to also show some improvements.
Arizona State
5-13-0 (Overall) and 1-4-0 (Pac 12)
Projected Lineup
125 – Dalton Miller
133 – Shane McGough
141 – Nathan Hoffer
149 – Joel Smith
157 – Derek Felton
165 – Kyle DeBerry
174 – Eric Starks
184 – Jake Meredith
197 – Luke Macchiaroli
285 – Levi Cooper
We expect the Sun Devils to be an improved squad this year. The strength of this team is in the backend of their line-up. Being led by All-American Levi Cooper the Sun Devils will also rely on Starks, Meredith and Macchiaroli, who are all coming off nice seasons and should be even better this season. The front of this line-up is made up of a bunch of new faces. The guy we suggest you keep and eye on is Smith. He was highly sought after coming out of high school and could prove to be a long term anchor in the middle of this line-up.
TOM’s Outlook: We are predicting three finalist and two champions for the Sun Devils this year. As we said, they have a lot of new faces so it is possible that some of the young guys step up and improve upon our predictions.
Cal Poly
9-2-0 (Overall) and 4-2-0 (PAC 12)
Projected Lineup
125 – Britain Longmire
133 – Brandan Rocha
141 – Boris Novachkov
149 – Damien Arredondo
157 – Travis Rasmussen/Travis Gallegos
165 – Steven Vasquez/Dominic Kastl
174 – Ryan DesRoches
184 – Ian Daube
197 – Ryan Smith
285 – Atticus Disney/Drew Meulman
The Mustangs will be led by Novachkov who is looking for a national title this year. This is one of those line-ups that could possibly finish higher then we are predicting. Smith and DesRoches have shown that they can wrestle at the upper levels and if they do that, the Mustangs should be in pretty good shape. Disney also has room to improve for them. At 165 either Vasquez or Kastl have the potential to open some eyes.
TOM’s Outlook: Look for the Mustangs to get four finalists and two champions. There is a chance they could do better then that, but they would need some guys to really step up this year and exceed expectations.
Stanford
9-9-1 (Overall) and 4-2-0 (PAC 12)
Projected Lineup
125 – Matt Sencenbaugh
133 – Ryan Mango
141 – Donovan Halpin
149 – Timmy Boone
157 – Kyle Meyer/Mike Kent
165 – Bret Baumbach
174 – Nick Amuchastegui
184 – Spence Patrick
197 – Alan Yen/Richard Kessler
285 – Dahlton Brown/Brendan Ter Wee
The Cardinals will be led by national champion hopeful Amuchastegui and Ryan Mango. These are two top notch guys that should provide some firepower this year. Some of you may be surprised to see Mango at 133 as most us thought he would be at 125 or redshirting. As of now he is training and planning to wrestle at 133 at least to start the season. We would not be shocked if you see him back down at 125 later in the year. Their fate in the conference standing may rest more with guys like Sencenbaugh and Patrick who both have beaten some solid guys.
TOM’s Outlook: We have them with two finalists and two champions. If you look through the preview you will notice we have them taking a fair number of 3rd places. With a few of those guys improving they could find themselves with a few more finalists.
Boise State
9-3-1 (Overall) and 5-0-1 (Pac 12)
Projected Lineup
125 – Isaac Romero
133 – Shawn Jones
141 – Josh Strait
149 – Steven Hernandez
157 – Georgi Ivanov
165 – Micheal Cuthbertson
174 – Scotty Bacon
184 – Jake Swartz
197 – Derek Toney/Chriswell (2nd semester)
285 – J.T Felix
Well, this is not the Boise team you are used to seeing, that much is for sure. There are a ton of new faces in the Bronco line-up. They also lack the star power that they tend to have year in and year out. They are redshirting some guys this year as well. We have to look at this as a rebuilding year. Swartz, Felix and Cutherbertson will most likely lead the way. They do get Omaha transfer Ivanov who had success at the DII level. It will be interesting to see which of the new faces step up. It should help them second semester when Chriswell returns to the line-up.
TOM’s Outlook: We have them with two maybe three finalist and zero champions. They may very well get a champion, but as of now we are not so sure.
Cal State Bakersfield
3-7-0 (Overall) and 2-4-0 (PAC 12)
Projected Lineup
125 – Tyler Iwamura
133 – Jose Mendoza
141 – Dalton Kelly
149 – Calvin Miller
157 – Anthony Box
165 – Adam Fierro
174 – Brady Garner
184 – Oren Dramen
197 – AC Brown
285 – Steven Wood
Bakersfield also has a lot of new faces coming into the line-up. It appears they are redshirting a few of their freshman making it look like they are in building mode. They will be led by Iwamura, Medoza, Box and Fierro. Those guys have the best chance to make statements. They have several young guys that will get starts right away so we will have to see how they look at the college level before we can say too much on them.
TOM’s Outlook: We have them with two finalists and zero champions. As we said there a few guys that may jump up and do well though.
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